（05:03）「（QE3終了後に金利を引き上げる時期について）相当な時間のあと､"相当"は定義しがたいが､多分６ヶ月．．．．」（抄訳）とやや誤解を与えかねない発言はあったものの､約１時間の記者会見はずっと見ていたものにとって､「初回にしては落ち着いていたし､上出来」と思えるものでした。イエレン議長の英語は私には分かり易かった。

　もっともその間にマーケットは荒れた。ニューヨークの株は彼女の発言内容を全体の流れの中で理解しきれないこともあって（マーケットは短絡だから）､一時ダウで２００ドル近く下げる場面もあった。しかし引けは114ドル02セント安の16222.17ドル。S&P（11.48安）やNASDAQ（25.71安）も安い。

　債券は売られた。彼女の記者会見やFRBの見通しでアメリカの金利が上がる時期が「来年」と見えたことで､債券を売る動きが強まった。指標１０年債の利回りはFOMCの声明発表とイエレンの記者会見の間に､それ以前の最も低いレベルである２．６６２％からもっとも高いところでは２．７９５％まで上昇した。引けは2.77％

　これを受けてもっとも動いた為替相場は､私が気がついた範囲ではドル・円とユーロ・ドルで､いずれも１００ポイント前後もドル高に動いた。。ドル・円の高値は１０２円７０銭（FOMC以前は１０１円台の前半）､ユーロ・ドルのそれは１．３８１０ドル（同１．３９の前半）。ニューヨーク市場のドル・円の引けは102円４０銭近辺。

　金相場は下落し､その他の商品では上がったものが多かった。恐らくニューヨークの株がイエレン発言で大きく下げたように見えたのは､過去二日間でダウで見て２６０ドル以上上がっていて､いずれにせよ調整が必要だったこともあると思う。
　――――――――――――――
　FOMCの声明とイエレン議長の記者会見で､私が考えていくつか重要だと思う点は､

• アメリカの景況については､その間の寒波などあってよく見えないところがあるが､１２月から４月というスパンで考えると､１２月時点での見方（FRBの）を変える必要はない
• 故に､昨年末から行っているテーパリングに関しては､今回も全体で１００億ドル削減して､月間の債券購入額を５５０億ドルとする
• ２０１２年以来使っていた「失業率６．５％」という金利を引き上げるガイダンスは「ineffective」なので落とし､「a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent」を考える
• ずっと根深くターゲットである２％を下回っているインフレ率については､「could pose risks to economic performance」と一文を設けて警戒を示し､「インフレ率が上昇するかどうかを監視する」と述べた
• イエレン議長の最初のFOMCから反対者（コチャラコタ）が出て､彼の反対理由が「who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.」とやや複雑なものだったこと

　などだろうか。「１」は声明（最後に掲載）の最初のパラグラフで「slow」という単語を２回も使っている割には楽観的に見えるが､「今は乱れている数字も春になれば戻ってくる」と見ているのでしょう。

　「失業率６．５％」というフォワード・ガイダンスを落とした今､「どんな理由で､いつアメリカの短期金利が上がり始めるのか」（FRBサイドから言えば上げ始めるのか）はマーケットの最大の関心ですが､声明では逆サイドから０～０．２５％の「超低金利を続ける期間」に関して「maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored」と単に「相当な期間」としている。

　それをイエレン議長はよせば良いのに､「６ヶ月というか､その程度の．．．．（something on the order of six months）」と具体的に会見で数字を出してしまった。マーケットでは恐らくその時点で「利上げ時期は早い」と判断してしまった向きが多かったのだろう。それは「QE3が終了後」という前提を聞き逃した（声明にもあるのだが）ケースと､「QE3終了後にしても思ったより早い」と理解した二つの向きがあったと思う。

　しかし声明と彼女の記者会見全体から見ると､「全てはデータ次第」であるとし､かつ声明が「低インフレ率」に強い警告を発していることを考えれば､アメリカの金利が上がり始めるのは「今から見れば相当先」と考えるのが自然だ。あわててダウで２００ドルも下げてしまったニューヨーク株式市場が､その後下げ幅を半分に削ってきた理由は､そこにあったと思う。

　予想のほかにマーケットを動かしたFOMC声明とイエレン議長記者会見でしたが､全体を見れば同議長の発言のペースのようなアメリカ経済のスローな回復は続いているという楽観的な色彩で､マーケットに長期的な影響を与えるようなものではなかったと考えられる｡

　この点に関してFRBが公表した見通しでは､米金利が上がり始めるのは来年になってからと見る向きが多いことが明らかになっている。ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルにはこの点に関して「The Fed's latest projections, also released Wednesday, showed most officials―13 of 16―expect to start raising short-term rates in 2015. Just one official expected to begin lifting rates this year and two expected the Fed will wait until 2016. Ten of 16 Fed officials said they saw the Fed's benchmark interest rate rising to 1% or more by the end of 2015, a slight uptick in projections from December, when only seven officials saw rates at or above the 1% level. Twelve of 16 officials expected the rate to be at or above 2% by the end of 2016. That's higher than in December, when eight officials saw rates at or above 2% by the end of 2016.」という文章がある。

　つまり米金利は今から続くゼロ金利の期間がナガイにしても､その後は徐々に上昇に向かう方向は見えたと言え､それがドルを円やユーロに対して上昇させたと考える｡もっとも､声明の「低インフレ警告」で分かる通り､米金利が上昇するペースはグリーンスパン時代のような「FF金利を毎回０．２５％」というようなことはないだろう。声明は特に「The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.」と指摘。

　最後に記者会見で「ウクライナ情勢はどうか」「ニューヨーク連銀に預託されている外国中銀の米債保有高の急減については」の記者の質問に対して､まず後者に関しては「ニューヨーク連銀の管轄で私はコメントできない」と言ったあとで､「ウクライナ情勢は注視しているし今後も見ていくが､米銀のロシアへのエクスポージャーは小さいので､大きなリスクではない」とイエレン議長が言ったのが記憶に残った。

　声明の全文は以下の通り。

Release Date: March 19, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.