２００８年１２月１７日（水曜日）　二つのビッグな驚き

　（05:23）正直、最初にFOMC声明を読んだときには驚きました｡いつものFF金利誘導目標がレンジになっていたからです｡表現としては「a target range」｡ここでまず目が止まった。こんなのは見たことがない｡

　次にそのレンジの「0 to 1/4 percent」というところでまた目が止まって、また驚いた｡つまり目標レンジは「０～０．２５」％というのである｡このレンジの上限は、「FOMCは０．７５％の利下げをする可能性がある」と見ていた市場の新FF金利誘導目標である｡しかしそれが上限なのだ｡

　つまりこれは、FOMCが従来１．０％だったFF金利の誘導目標を、０．７５％～１．０％引き下げた、というに等しい｡これはある意味で凄まじい利下げであり、この結果アメリカの政策金利は、日本の０．３０％を下回った｡この結果、今週末に開かれる日本の金融政策決定会合でも利下げの可能性が極めて高くなった、と言える｡

　下限の「０」というのは、日本がバブル崩壊後にしばらくやっていたゼロ金利政策に等しい｡つまり「金融政策がデフレ対応になった」ということだ｡この発表を受けてまずドルが売られたのは自然だろう｡一方、ニューヨークの株式市場では発表前に１００ドル高前後だったダウ平均が３００ドルを超える上昇となっている｡FOMC声明が指摘するように経済情勢は厳しいが、「FOMCの決意を評価した」ということだろう｡

　更に読み進むと、「The focus of the Committee's policy 」で始まるパラグラフは、要するに「物価の安定を保ち、景気の落ち込み、雇用市場の悪化を防ぐ」ためにはFRBは何でもしますよ、と書いているように見える｡FRBのバランスシートを膨らまして金融市場機能を保ち、景気を刺激するために既に行っている「量的金融緩和」を徹底的にやると言うことでしょうし、「will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets,」と言えば、住宅市場復活のためには関連の証券を大量に買う、と言っていると取れる｡

　またさらに「he Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities」と述べて、政府債務（長期国債）を買い取るメリットについても分析する、と述べている｡禁じ手に手を染めるかも知れない、と言っているのである｡

　FOMCの支援は、金融市場や金融機関、それに政府にとどまらない｡「Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.」ということは、FRBが直接家計や中小企業に信用を供与すると言っていると思える｡FRBのバランスシートが著しく膨張し、かつ劣化しても、という覚悟が見て取れる｡

　しかも重要なのは、この重要な決定が「反対者なし」で下されたことである｡下を見れば反対者はいない｡つまり満場一致ということだ｡このFOMC決定の歴史的な意味は、今後いろいろな形で議論されるでしょう｡しかしその議論の前に、FRBは未踏の領域に踏み出した印象がする｡問題は効果が出るかどうかだ｡

Release Date: December 16, 2008

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.

Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quartersthe Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.