２０１２年１２月１３日（木曜日）　これってプレゼント　？

（05:15）連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）は１２日まで２日間に渡って開いていた金融政策決定会合（FOMC）で、やや驚きの、「ある種妥当性は感じるものの懸念も残る」超金融緩和策の改訂バージョンを発表しました｡それは金融政策をより直接的に「失業率の水準、インフレ率、それに長期インフレ期待にリンク付けする」というものです｡

具体的にはFRBは今の超緩和政策（FF金利の誘導目標を０～０．２５とし、非伝統的な金融政策を発動）の継続に関して、「特に（in paticular）」として以下の３条件を明示した｡

1. as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent
2. inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal
3. and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored

「失業率が６．５％以上であること」
「今後１～２年のインフレ予想がFRBの目標２％を０．５％ポイント以上にならないこと」
「長期インフレ期待が落ち着いていること」

しかしこの点に関してはFOMCは「The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance」とも言っているので、「そういうことはまずないだろう」と考えていることが伺える｡

もっともFOMCは超緩和策の継続か解除かに関して上記の３条件以外のことも考慮するとして、「the Committee will also consider other information」（他の情報も考慮する）と述べ、具体的には「additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments」を具体的に挙げ、さらに超緩和策の解除に関しては「When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent」と述べている｡「あくまで（特定の指標だけにとらわれない）バランス重視で行く」と述べている｡当然だろう｡別に失業率のみにリンクした訳ではない（今朝の欧米紙誌の見出しはそうなっているが）｡

しかし今回のFOMCの考え方が非常に目新しいものであり、妥当性もあることは確かだが、そこには懸念もあると指摘できる｡例えFRBのdual mandateの一方が「最大雇用の維持」であるにしてもだ｡筆者が考える懸念は以下のようなものである｡

1. そもそもアメリカの失業率やインフレ率統計は、金融政策の切り替え時に頼りにするほど正確なものかどうか（米失業率は家計調査で行われているが、これに関しては常に妥当性に議論がある）
2. 切り替えに当たっては単月の統計で行うのか、それともある期間の移動平均で行うのかがこの声明では明確でない
3. だからマスコミが特に注目する「失業率リンク」の意向表明は、来年に改選期を迎えたバーナンキの政治的アピールではないのか、と勘ぐられても仕方がない面がある

非伝統的金融政策の中味もFOMCは変えました｡今年の末で切れる「オペレーション・ツイスト」（短期債売りの長期債買い、月額４５０億ドル）を止め、来年からは「月額４５０億ドル」の長期債買いに切り替わります｡つまりその分だけ、つまり短期債を売らない分だけFRBの資産の増え方が加速すると言うこと｡これは明確な緩和策の強化です｡加えての月額４００億ドルの「住宅ローン担保証券（agency mortgage-backed securities）」の購入は続けるので、ネットで８５０億ドルの緩和策となる｡

これは当然株式市場で歓迎された｡デイリーのチャートを見ると、この発表があった日本時間の午前２時にニューヨークの株価は急上昇している｡引けがどうなるか分からないが、マーケットは歓迎と言うことでしょう｡為替はドルが安い｡高値よりは｡これも当然です｡しかしドル・円は８３円台ではある｡

今回の一連の金融政策の考え方の変更には反対者が出た｡Jeffrey M. Lackerで、彼は「opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate」と｡「継続・解除条件の特徴付け」に反対している｡そういう意見が出るのは当然でしょう｡

以下がFOMC声明の全文です｡この全文の長さは例えば前回の声明に比べても長い｡パラグラフの数は同じですが、１パラグラフが長いという構成になっている｡私が記憶しているFOMC声明の中でも、今回の声明はとりわけ長い方です｡

うーん、今年最後のFOMCでFRBはマーケットにクリスマス・プレゼントを贈ったんですかね｡よくよく色々な状況を考えた上で｡しかし論争を呼ぶプレゼントであることに違いはない｡

Release Date: December 12, 2012

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.